RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — Nine voters made the difference in the latest North Carolina poll which shows former president Donald Trump with a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris with likely voters.
Released Thursday morning, the latest WNCT/Emerson College/The Hill poll indicated that out of 1,000 respondents in North Carolina, 499 would vote for Trump if they had to vote right now. For Harris, 490 voters said they would vote for her in the election were today — and the rest said they would vote for someone else.
Trump takes back 1-point advantage in NC
It’s been a tight race in all seven swing states since polling from Emerson College began asking the same set of questions in July. In North Carolina, it’s been a battle of 1%.
In August, Trump held the 1% lead. In September, the state flipped to give Harris the 1% lead. Now, in October, Trump has reclaimed it.
Where do the other swing states stand?
“With the race still deadlocked and just under four weeks to go, it remains too close to call in key swing states, all within the margin of error,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Nevada is the only swing state where Trump has not managed to gain even a one-point lead, according to the poll’s findings. The best he’s done there was being even-step with Harris in September at 48% evenly favored before Harris took the 1-point lead in that state again in October.
Looking at more swing states, Emerson College said in addition to North Carolina, Trump holds a one-point lead in Georgia and Pennsylvania. The former president’s widest lead of two points is with Arizona voters. This is a much slimmer lead than the 8-point advantage Trump had in that state just two months prior.
There are two states that are dead even with no clear favorite—Michigan and Wisconsin.
“Emerson/The Hill surveys have shown Trump steady at 49% for several months in Wisconsin, raising questions about whether he has hit a ceiling there,” Kimball added.
Harris favored among NC’s undecided voters
Those who participated in the poll and remain undecided in what their choice will be come Nov. 5 were asked which candidate they are currently leaning toward.
Kamala Harris was favored 70% compared to 30% who are leaning toward Trump.
Widest margin yet for NC gubernatorial race
There’s been a steady trend from August through October in the race for North Carolina’s next governor. It’s a trend that suggests the winner will be current N.C. Attorney General Josh Stein.
The difference between Stein and current Lt. Governor Mark Robinson grew an additional eight points with Stein gaining two and Robinson losing six since September. This marks the first time in Emerson College polling that Stein holds a two-digit lead.
| Polling month | % favoring Josh Stein | % favoring Mark Robinson | Difference (points) |
|---|---|---|---|
| August 2024 | 47% | 41% | 6 |
| September 2024 | 48% | 40% | 8 |
| October 2024 | 50% | 34% | 16 |
The major shift with voters which led to Stein’s lead in the race doubling came after the release of an expose on Mark Robinson published by CNN.
The story linked him to comments made on the message board of a porn website where he reportedly called himself a “black NAZI,” said he supports the reinstatement of slavery and that he enjoys watching transgender pornography despite his long history of anti-transgender rhetoric.
Key issues for NC voters
Economic concerns continue to be the top issue for voters in every swing state, except for Arizona, where immigration is the top issue for 30% of voters, followed by the economy at 24%.
Here in North Carolina, the top issues rank as follows with likely voters: 44% economy, 10% immigration, 9% housing affordability and 9% education.
