TALAHASSEE, Fla. — Two weeks ago, Hurricane Helene “spared” the Tampa Bay region a direct hit and yet the storm surge still caused catastrophic damage, flooding homes, drowning people who decided to stay near the coast and leaving behind huge piles of debris that still line the roadsides.
Now that Hurricane Miltona more powerful storm is heading straight for the same region, what can residents expect?
“Worse. Much worse,” said former Federal Emergency Management Director Craig Fugate, a Florida resident who previously led the state’s Emergency Management Department.
The cities near the mouth of Tampa Bay saw some of the worst storm surges in history during Helene, even though the storm made landfall more than 100 miles (161 kilometers) north. Now forecasters say the low-lying area could be hit by a storm surge of five meters.
“This is not water that rises slowly. This is fast-flowing water with waves. It’s like a battering ram,” Fugate said. “You just don’t want to be in that area. That’s how we lost a lot of lives in all those peak areas where people couldn’t come out. They drowned or were crushed because their houses collapsed on them.”
Storm surge is the level at which sea water rises above normal levels.
Just as the sustained winds of a storm do not take into account the potential for even stronger gusts, a storm surge does not include the wave height above the average water level of the wave itself.
Wave action is also the amount above the normal tide at that time, so a storm surge of 5 meters at high tide topped by 3 meter waves can easily level buildings. tearing down bridges and leveling everything in its path.
The coast of Florida’s Western Peninsula includes the Tampa Bay region, but that’s not by accident the city of Tampa at risk. St. Petersburg and its densely populated barrier islands are located on the Gulf of Mexico, near the mouth of the bay. And the storm surge threat extends about 150 miles (241 kilometers) north into the state’s Big Bend region and more than 150 miles (241 kilometers) south into Naples and the Florida Keys.
Milton will have a huge impact wherever it lands, but the worst wave will be south of Milton’s eye. If that extends to Tampa Bay and the 3.3 million people who live in the region, flooding could be catastrophic. The region has not suffered a direct hit from a major hurricane in more than 100 years.
If disaster strikes south of Tampa Bay, cities like Sarasota, Venice, Fort Myers and Naples could be destroyed just two years later. Hurricane Ian caused catastrophic damage, washing away homes and businesses and making bridges to barrier islands impassable.
State and local governments are moving as quickly as possible to remove storm tree branches, furniture, appliances and other debris left in huge piles after Helene. But they won’t lose everything.
While state and local officials fear Milton’s winds and waves could turn debris into deadly projectiles, Fugate points out that no one will be killed if they evacuate and property damage will be severe with or without blowing debris.
“I feel like anything left standing will become rubble and you won’t be able to make it out,” Fugate said. “If you have enough water to move that stuff, you’re going to have to move houses, cars and other things.”
Sure, Milton could weaken from Category 5 to Category 3 before landfall, but that won’t make a big difference when it comes to storm surge.
“Wind has no memory, storm surge does. So what a storm does on a day out will have a lot of impact on the storm surge,” Fugate said. “Once that energy is in the water and you push, even if you see some weakening, it doesn’t really change.”
And the area Milton goes to has a large number of creeks, canals and rivers that can cause problems beyond the immediate coast.
“This is the kind of storm where too many people get fixated on the category and the track and they really need to listen to the local weather services and the hurricane center about the impacts,” Fugate said. “Storm surge is not tied to the wind, it is related.”
