As the run-up to the US Presidential race intensifies between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, the betting market is in a daze after news that an unknown trader going by the handle Fredi9999 has wagered a significant amount on Donald Trump defeating Kamala Harris. Fredi9999 had earlier bet on UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but both have withdrawn from the Presidential race.
Experts have mixed opinions, with a section treating it as a ploy to sway market views, while a sizable number feel that it is a true sign of trust for Donald Trump. The Commodities and Futures Trading Commission and political analysts are worried about possible market manipulation and its effects on public sentiments as D-Day for the US Presidential elections draws close.
According to reports, Fredi9999 has invested over $14 million in Trump’s success, including bets on Trump winning key states and the popular vote. Meanwhile, there is speculation that the wagers may be part of a strategy to hedge against political risks or to sway market sentiments toward Trump.
Trump and Harris in a Tight Race
Both Trump and Harris are locked in a tight race, and less than a month remains until Election Day. Pre-polls show that the two presidential candidates are separated only by a whisker-thin margin in the keenly fought states. However, looking at the betting trends, it seems that market sentiments are tilted toward Trump in recent days.
Polymarket, which is a major political betting market based offshore and partly funded by Peter Thiel, gave Trump about a 60 percent chance of winning the election, while Harris trails behind at 40%. The betting trends are always volatile and can change by a large margin based on current events and polls that could affect the outcome of the race.
‘Fredi9999’ Stakes Millions Betting On Trump Victory
Fredi9999 has bought more than 15 million shares, valued at $8.7 million, betting that Trump would become the next President of the US. He has also bought more than 3 million shares betting that Trump would win the popular vote, 1.5 million shares betting Trump would prevail in Pennsylvania.
Laura Beers, a professor of history and expert on political betting at American University, told media house Newsweek,
“If Fredi9999 has business interests that stand to lose from a Trump victory, they could be betting on one to offset those potential future losses. There is evidence that British bettors used election markets this way in the early 20th century.”
She added,
“The trader has been involved in significant in-and-out trading. They might be seeking to profit from market manipulation of their own devising, or just to profit from taking advantage of what they see as temporary shifts in the market.”
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