This should be a bad year for Democrats. The electorate is unhappy with the economy; inflation is hitting voters; the cost of living remains, for the median American, a pivotal issue at the ballot box. Some Democrat strategists think that the party can offset this by going hard on abortion, rallying their own base and depressing wavering Trump voters in the process. But abortion does not motivate as many as the pound – or, uh, dollar – in the pocket does.
In the Democrat’s defence, it will narrow the race. And it could prove effective in Georgia particularly, where the state’s supreme court reinstated the six-week abortion ban earlier this week. But most voters’ focus is elsewhere. And here is the problem for Kamala Harris: when people feel poor it tends to favour the outsider in elections. And though Harris may not be Joe Biden, for all intents and purposes she reads as the incumbent. This should be the Republican’s election.
The problem, however, is that the "change" candidate in 2024 is the double-edged sword of Donald Trump. On the one hand, the former president can appeal to both white working class Americans and, increasingly, a cohort of apathetic Latino voters in a way few leaders have done. Some white voters recall Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” gaffe from 2016, and Barack Obama’s “bitter communities” overture in 2008. There is – in no small sense – a feeling that the white working class is held in contempt by the perceived elitism of the Democrats. The party hasn’t won over this group in a major way since Lyndon B Johnson managed in 1964. And they aren’t doing a great job at recovering the ground now.
Owing to the fact that the Democrats underperform among this cohort, they have handed easy leads to Trump in states like Iowa and Ohio. But here is the other edge to that sword: by indulging radical positions Trump alienates voters who would otherwise not have had any second thoughts about voting for the “change” candidate this year: suburban Americans, white women, the inflation-anxious. His rhetorical weirdness is giving them pause, when the Republicans should really be sweeping up their votes.
The best way of thinking about Trump, then, is that he has a lower ceiling but a higher basement than other Republican candidates. His lowest feasible vote will not be that low, but he can only aspire so high with tactics like these.
The Democrats ought to be appreciative. Trump’s current knack of putting off these swing voters is the very thing bringing the race down to the wire. But this should have been the Republican’s election to lose.
[See also: Trump or Harris, who will win? The New Statesman’s US Election Forecast]
