Less than 24 hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, Tehran retaliated, launching ballistic missiles from Iran to Israel. On Tuesday evening Iran’s Revolutionary Guards released a statement saying that “dozens” of missiles had been launched in response to the recent assassinations of several Hezbollah leaders, including the group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah. The statement added that it would launch further missiles if Iran was attacked.
Air raid sirens across Israel sounded, warning Israelis to seek shelter. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned that citizens should “remain alert and precisely follow the home front command’s instructions”. Earlier in the day, White House officials had briefed reporters that Iran was preparing to “imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel”. Journalists and Israelis in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv have reported seeing flashes of light and explosions, likely the sound of Israel’s iron dome defences intercepting missiles. Videos circulating on social media appear to show various missiles hitting the ground in Israel, while the New York Times has reported that, so far, two people have been mildly wounded by shrapnel in Tel Aviv.
Iran’s attack on Israel could precipitate a dramatic escalation in an already widening conflict that has already brutalised Gaza, expanded up into Lebanon and been felt in Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
At this point it’s unclear if the scale of this attack will match that which Iran launched on 13 April, when it sent approximately 185 drones and 146 missiles toward Israel. At the time, most of the projectiles were intercepted by Israel’s allies before reaching the country. A US intelligence source had previously told the Washington Post that Iran had learned from its failed April attack, and had sought to improve its capabilities, “perhaps by integrating cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones into an attack in order to overwhelm the air defenses of Israel and its allies”.
One immediate apparent difference between April’s attack and now is time: while Iran had previously signalled its strike to Israel and the West hours before the drones and missiles reached Israeli territory, today’s missiles arrived within minutes of air raid sirens sounding. The White House has said that Joe Biden has directed the military “to aid Israel’s defense against Iranian attacks and shoot down missiles that are targeting Israel”.
It’s also unclear how Israel might respond. After the attack in April, Biden urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “take the win,” and the response was tepid. But Netanyahu might feel emboldened after recent tactical wins: not just the assassination of Nasrallah, but also the detonation of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah across Lebanon. The risk of an all-out regional war has never seemed greater.
